Free Betting Picks for NFL in 2017!
Heading into week 6 and have had a great year with our free picks. We are launching a major initiative for the playoffs and college bowl games.
If you want to be an expert at picking both NFL and college football games, you have arrived at your destination.
Football Betting Tips
Best-Football-Bets.com is a service provided by a team of advanced analytic experts and football aficionados, who, after years working on other projects have teamed up to concentrate on football betting tips. The group utilizes their own system they call “common factor metrics”, which goes beyond matchup analytics and historical tendencies. With sports gambling inevitably becoming legal in the next few years, the timing was perfect to formalize their system into a web based service.
Knowing how to bet pro and college football games is an art and a science. The best handicappers understand tendencies and strategies, and use advanced analytics to best determine the outcome of games.
Sports Gambling News
Football Betting Is Still Football
Just like with the explosion of fantasy football, what gets lost is that it is not a video game, this is all based on actual games being played. That is why Best Football Bets is more than a sports betting tips site- it is a football site. It would be deeply and purposefully ignorant to base bets purely on team historical performance and running analytics off of that. Football is a highly specialized and intricate game of strategy and execution. Just like the NFL draft, it still all comes down to humans performing, which is an inexact science. Knowledge is power, so if you are dedicating a part of your life to trying to predict the outcome of football games, prepare yourself with all of the information that you can.
Know Trends In Football To Succeed
Football is a copycat sport at the pro and major college level. It is paramount to know the major trends year in and year out to properly predict the outcome of games. Spreads will be pushed by bets made by those that aren’t fully up to speed changes for players, coaches, schemes, and league rules.
Major factors for consideration with football trends, particularly with pro games:
- Player development: Most fans and gamblers look at football in a “snapshot” viewpoint. It is easier to digest and formulate quick opinions on the quality of a team. However, coaches and evaluators see football as a constant juggling act of utilizing veterans while developing younger, inexperienced players. What this means in attempting to predicting results is knowing how quickly it generally takes players at each position to get comfortable within a scheme, and how players of various experience can operate in synch.
- Scheme Changes: Teams change from 3-4 to 4-3 defenses, employ new offensive schemes, and have to get the players in place to operate the changes. Knowing the predictive learning curve of these changes is critical to predicting performance.
- Free Agency / Draft: Fans get a tad euphoric about a team’s draft and free agency acquisition. However, there are fairly reliable statistics on the success rate of each free agency position and the time it takes for rookies to adapt to the pro game. For example, a first round running back will most likely have far more impact on a team than a first round cornerback, who might take 3-4 years to find his game.
- Coaching Changes: The obvious changes at head coach are analyzed ad nauseam, but positional coaches can make a huge impact on team performance. Learning the history of each position coach is an excellent first step in predicting future performance.
Football Betting Tips Pick Analysis: Three Major Factors
There are three major components to our “common factor metrics”:
- Historical Tendencies: The most common form of picking spreads is the empirical analysis of Historical Tendencies. At its most rudimentary form it starts with reputation, but in actuality is a robust analysis of “situational success”.
- Matchup Metrics: Far beyond team vs. team strengths and weakness evaluation, the BFB’s data metrics is an exhaustive analysis that includes, but is not limited to: scheme, injuries, coaching, weather, season progression, player trends, and even “team standings incentive propositions”.
- Line-Pushing Trends: Betting spreads are similar to stocks as they are partly based on subjective tendencies. The old line is that you can play the stock market just based on what is on the front page of the Wall Street Journal- because that is where most people’s analysis ends and thus you can play against the emotions of the masses. One “emotional variable” can throw off a betting line, creating an opportunity for crafty gamblers.
Top Pro Football Betting Tips in 2017
- Third Quarter Scoring: The NFL has become a matchup league and a very reliable stat on the overall success of teams is how they make halftime adjustments. Teams that can quickly adapt and adjust their offensive game plan halftime are much more inclined to not only win, but beat spreads.
- Two Tight End Sets: A concept first introduced in the 1970’s, the duel threat usage of two tight ends has been an indicator of adaptable and effective offenses.
- Four Minute Drills: As seen in the Superbowl, teams not only need the ability to score, but also to be able to maintain leads by running out the clock with an effective run or short passing game.
- Hybrid Running Back / Wide Receivers: A staple of many modern offenses, teams are scrambling to add running backs that can catch and wide receivers that can line up in standard running back formations. The combination throws off defenses and creates favorable matchups.
- Spread Offense Concepts Integrations: What often appears as an ebb and flow of spread offenses being utilized in pro offenses, it is in actuality, a synthesis of many spread concepts into more traditional offensive systems.
- Return of Power Running Game: With many defenses going smaller with linebackers and also brining up safeties more and more to handle matchup issues, the use of a power run game is catching fire. The bigger backs are able to take advantage of smaller defenders.
Top College Football Betting Tips in 2017
- Trouble With The Spread: In major conference play, some of the major teams that don’t employ many spread offense concepts still have a game or two every year against up-tempo, spread teams. This is particularly true in the SEC and Big 10. Teams that are in a division of a conference, in particular, that is made up of pro style offenses, often utilize larger linebackers and continually have problems with hard-core spread offenses.
- Long Waits On First Away Game: Top teams that schedule a long stretch of home games before heading on the road will continue to get unexpected tests for their first road games when they are past half way in the season.
- Pro Style Teams Depth: The spread offense, in all of its various machinations has one thing in common: it allows for players to be used interchangeable far more than pro style teams. When pro style teams in college lose key players, team performance is effected much more.
- Championship Game Safety Net: With most of the top conferences now utilizing the championship game and with the playoff system in place, there is a natural let down for teams locked into their conference championship game.
“A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.” ~ Plato
Football Betting and the DIKW Pyramid
The “DIKW Pyramid” is a structured way to look at gaining valuable insights from data that is seemingly coming from every direction. In the truest sense, “Numbers Lie”. That is to say that when numbers, analystics, or data- whatever you want to call it, stand alone, they can’t and won’t be an effective way of predicting anything.
In short, don’t follow what the nerds are saying, follow what the nerds’ bosses are saying. “Data” is just one aspect of decision making, but it is taking over the discussion in sports today. Here is a more effective model for making decisions, and what is the guiding principle of Best-Football-Bets:
Football Betting Tip: Best NFL Teams Against The Spread in 2016
New England 84.2%
New Orleans 66.7%
Green Bay 61.1%
Tampa Bay 56.2%
Kansas City 56.2%
NY Giants 56.2%
San Diego 43.8%
NY Jets 37.5%
San Francisco 26.7%
Los Angeles 26.7%
Football Betting Tip: Best College Teams Against The Spread in 2016
Colorado St 76.9%
Penn State 76.9%
E Michigan 76.9%
Oregon St 75.0%
W Michigan 71.4%
Miami (OH) 69.2%
Miami (FL) 69.2%
NC State 69.2%
Texas Tech 66.7%
Florida St 66.7%
S Methodist 66.7%
Old Dominion 66.7%
GA Tech 63.6%
Fresno St 63.6%
S Florida 61.5%
N Carolina 61.5%
Oklahoma St 61.5%
Central FL 61.5%
Wake Forest 61.5%
LA Lafayette 61.5%
Iowa State 58.3%
Ball State 58.3%
North Texas 58.3%
U Mass 58.3%
N Mex State 58.3%
Georgia State 58.3%
LA Tech 57.1%
VA Tech 57.1%
Arkansas St 53.8%
San Diego St 53.8%
App State 53.8%
Kent State 50.0%
Arizona St 50.0%
Boston Col 50.0%
N Illinois 50.0%
Middle Tenn 50.0%
S Carolina 50.0%
W Kentucky 50.0%
LA Monroe 50.0%
Kansas St 46.2%
Air Force 46.2%
Ohio State 46.2%
Wash State 46.2%
New Mexico 46.2%
San Jose St 45.5%
TX El Paso 45.5%
Florida Intl 45.5%
Texas State 41.7%
Central Mich 38.5%
W Virginia 38.5%
Miss State 38.5%
Notre Dame 33.3%
Bowling Grn 33.3%
Michigan St 33.3%
S Mississippi 33.3%
Texas A&M 30.8%
E Carolina 25.0%
Utah State 25.0%
GA Southern 25.0%
S Alabama 25.0%
TX Christian 23.1%
Boise State 23.1%
Fla Atlantic 18.2%